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Tokens
SpaceMay 12

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Before Jan 20, 2029
Before Jan 1, 2028
$41,432,206 vol3 more
Space

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

MarketPays outOdds
Before Jan 20, 2029
3.96x
Before Jan 1, 2028
6.74x
Before Jan 1, 2027
23.4x
Before Dec 1, 2026
23.4x
$41,432,206 vol1 more
1 of 3

How many launches will SpaceX have in October?

Above 10
1.13x
Above 9
1.02x
$437,449 vol

Best AI this month?

Gemini
1.15x
Claude
10.4x
$672,671 vol

When will Anthropic release Mythos?

Before Jan 1, 2027
8.56x
Before Dec 1, 2026
9.41x
$2,123,044 vol

Top Chinese AI company this month

Xiaomi
1.25x
Moonshot
6.74x
$18,546 vol

Anthropic share of spend today (Vercel)

LIVE
Above 41.9%
1.36x
Above 42.4%
4.98x
$8,053 vol

Anthropic share of requests today (Vercel)

LIVE
Above 8.7%
6.29x
Above 7.8%
1.01x
$10,351 vol

Moonshot AI share of spend today (Vercel)

LIVE
Above 7.2%
8.56x
Above 7.0%
6.29x
$12,426 vol

OpenAI share of requests today (Vercel)

LIVE
Above 23.0%
1.48x
Above 24.1%
1.25x
$2,498 vol

Which countries will report an Ebola case this year?

Central African Republic
1.70x
South Sudan
2.46x
$485,419 vol

How many launches will Rocket Lab have before 2027?

Above 11
3.52x
Above 9
1.10x
$13,423 vol

When will any company achieve AGI?

Before Apr 1, 2028
1.76x
Before Jan 1, 2028
2.46x
$269,788 vol

When will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?

Before Jan 1, 2027
3.08x
Before Dec 1, 2026
7.25x
$263,244 vol

When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?

Before Dec 31, 2026
1.93x
Before Nov 13, 2026
3.80x
$369,820 vol

Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?

Yes
6.29x
No
1.14x
$423,597 vol

Number of data centers in Arizona this year?

At least 188
1.23x
At least 196
8.56x
$9,646 vol

Top AI model this month

gemini-4-argon-high
1.12x
claude-opus-5.5-high
46.8x
$56,872 vol

SpaceX Starship 15th launch?

Before Nov 27, 2026
1.38x
Before Nov 13, 2026
3.66x
$99,348 vol

Open source token share Oct 26–Nov 1 (OpenRouter)

Above 69.2%
--
Above 70.7%
--
$0 vol

OpenAI share of spend today (Vercel)

LIVE
Above 15.9%
1.09x
Above 15.6%
1.08x
$2,952 vol

NASA lands on the moon?

Before 2030
2.19x
Before 2029
3.52x
$582,059 vol

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Anthropic
1.25x
OpenAI
8.56x
$1,194,607 vol