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Tech & Science

Big Tech & Business

AIDec 31

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Claude

Gemini

$13,789,965 vol6 more

Best AI at the end of 2026?

MarketPays outOdds

Claude

1.93x

Gemini

2.66x

ChatGPT

11.7x

Grok

31.2x

$13,789,965 vol4 more

1 of 3

Pandemic this year?

Yes

10.4x

No

1.07x

$846,618 vol1 market

Best AI this week

Gemini

1.15x

Claude

4.31x

$29,741 vol9 markets

Best AI this month?

Gemini

1.38x

Claude

3.18x

$185,786 vol7 markets

OpenAI market share this week

Above 17.8%

1.79x

Above 18.1%

2.05x

$24,599 vol9 markets

Anthropic market share this week

Above 2.5%

1.70x

Above 2.6%

2.29x

$18,548 vol8 markets

OpenRouter token usage in Oct 5–11

Above 172 T tokens

1.60x

Above 176 T tokens

1.79x

$11,606 vol14 markets

Z.ai market share this week

Above 10.8%

1.16x

Above 14.1%

1.09x

$11,575 vol9 markets

How many launches will SpaceX have in October?

Above 9

1.40x

Above 10

4.51x

$64,226 vol11 markets

Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?

Before January 1, 2027

2.98x

Before December 1, 2026

4.13x

$8,704 vol3 markets

Nobel Physics winner?

John Pendry

3.29x

Michael Berry

2.34x

$25,860 vol24 markets

When will any company achieve AGI?

Before Oct 1, 2027

1.93x

Before Jul 1, 2027

2.29x

$222,778 vol11 markets

When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?

Before Nov 13, 2026

7.25x

Before Nov 6, 2026

7.85x

$193,907 vol6 markets

Next Gemini Pro model release

Before Dec 1, 2026

2.59x

Before Nov 16, 2026

3.18x

$90,622 vol4 markets

Nobel Prize in Chemistry: 2026

Harry Gray

5.90x

Shankar Balasubramanian

4.98x

$16,862 vol30 markets

Google market share this week

Above 17.8%

2.29x

Above 20.4%

1.48x

$4,049 vol9 markets

Nobel Prize in Literature: 2026

Anne Carson

4.51x

Can Xue

5.56x

$10,787 vol12 markets

Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases this month?

1 or more

1.83x

2 or more

2.46x

$3,575 vol3 markets

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

United States

United States

United States

1.67x

China

China

China

3.18x

$165,022 vol5 markets

Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Gemini

5.90x

Claude

8.56x

$166,419 vol8 markets

Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?

Yes

4.73x

No

1.22x

$309,756 vol1 market

Big Tech & Business

Where will Waymo operate this year?

Las Vegas, NV

1.26x

Tampa, FL

1.25x

$308,081 vol21 markets