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Tech & Science

Big Tech & Business

SpaceMay 12

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Before Jan 20, 2029

Before 2028

$36,912,111 vol4 more

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

MarketPays outOdds

Before Jan 20, 2029

4.31x

Before 2028

6.29x

Before 2027

15.6x

Before December

23.4x

$36,912,111 vol2 more

1 of 3

OpenAI market share this week

Above 20.8%

1.67x

Above 21.8%

4.51x

$11,006 vol9 markets

How many launches will SpaceX have in September?

Above 8

1.22x

Above 9

5.25x

$232,692 vol11 markets

Tencent market share this week

Above 4.5%

1.50x

Above 5.6%

4.98x

$7,615 vol9 markets

Top Chinese AI Company week of September 21st

Alibaba

1.12x

Moonshot

18.8x

$7,262 vol10 markets

Google market share this week

Above 19.1%

1.83x

Above 18.8%

1.57x

$5,553 vol9 markets

Anthropic market share this week

Above 2.55%

1.79x

Above 2.45%

1.42x

$4,609 vol9 markets

Big Tech & Business

What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?

Earbuds/Headphones

4.73x

Clip-on device for clothing

7.25x

$146,519 vol10 markets

When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?

Before 2029

3.18x

Before 2030

1.23x

$310,130 vol5 markets

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Anthropic

1.38x

OpenAI

4.51x

$1,070,370 vol9 markets

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

Before 2028

1.65x

Before 2030

1.34x

$1,036,805 vol3 markets

Open Source market share on Sep 14th

Above 75%

93.5x

Above 80%

93.5x

$70,657 vol9 markets

Next Gemini Pro model release

Before Oct 16, 2026

2.01x

Before Nov 1, 2026

1.22x

$17,625 vol6 markets

Big Tech & Business

Where will Waymo operate this year?

Sacramento, CA

2.05x

Charlotte, NC

4.13x

$267,308 vol21 markets

When will xAI release Grok 5?

Before 2027

1.50x

Before October

31.2x

$91,007 vol2 markets

Measles cases this year?

Above 6000

1.60x

Above 8000

4.98x

$1,273,733 vol5 markets

OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 14–20

Above 132T tokens

1.33x

Above 134T tokens

1.28x

$2,014 vol13 markets

When will nuclear fusion be achieved?

Before 2035

1.90x

Before 2040

1.83x

$47,719 vol3 markets

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

OpenAI

2.89x

xAI

7.25x

$1,097,766 vol12 markets

Top Coding AI this month (DeepSWE)

ChatGPT

1.34x

Gemini

5.56x

$42,050 vol8 markets

When will Anthropic release Mythos?

Before Jan 1, 2027

7.25x

Before Dec 1, 2026

15.6x

$2,026,384 vol4 markets

Qwen market share this week

Above 6.25%

1.70x

Above 5.95%

1.36x

$1,336 vol9 markets