Who will win the National Book Award for Nonfiction? Odds & Predictions 2025
Who will win the National Book Award for Nonfiction?
Who will win the National Book Award for Nonfiction?
One Day, Everyone Will Have Always Been Against This
Omar El Akkad
Yes
One Day, Everyone Will Have Always Been Against This
Omar El Akkad
Yes
Wards of the State: The Long Shadow of American Foster Care
Claudia Rowe
No
Wards of the State: The Long Shadow of American Foster Care
Claudia Rowe
No
The Autobiography of H. Lan Thao Lam
Lana Lin
No
The Autobiography of H. Lan Thao Lam
Lana Lin
No
8 more
Important information: The following market can only have one Yes outcome. If two nominees tie then the market called 'Tie' will resolve to Yes.
Market Rules
One Day, Everyone Will Have Always Been Against This
The outcome is One Day, Everyone Will Have Always Been Against This
Resolves Yes if'One Day, Everyone Will Have Always Been Against This' wins the Nonfiction award at 76th National Book Awards.Outcome verified from National Book Awards.
The 76th National Book Awards will take place Wednesday, November 19, 2025.
Note: this event is mutually exclusive.
Timeline and payout
Market openSep 25, 2025 · 10:00am EDT
Market closedAfter the outcome occurs
Paid out30 minutes after closing
This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Nov 20, 2025 at 10:00am EST.
SeriesKXBOOKAWARDSNONF
EventKXBOOKAWARDSNONF-25
MarketKXBOOKAWARDSNONF-25-ONE
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One Day, Everyone Will Have Always Been Against This