Canada recession this year?
Canada recession this year?
$600 vol
Order book
Yes
Market Rules
The outcome is -0.036
If Canada has at least 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth in Q4 2025 through Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Statistics Canada and Trading Economics.
For the avoidance of doubt, qualifying consecutive quarters may include Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
“Negative real GDP growth” means that the quarter-over-quarter percent change in Canada’s real gross domestic product, as reported in Statistics Canada’s Gross domestic product, income and expenditure release, is below 0.0% for a calendar quarter. The market will resolve based on the first official release of the relevant quarterly GDP data and will not be affected by later revisions.
Timeline and payout
Market openMay 6, 2026 · 12:00pm EDT
Market closedAfter the outcome occurs
Paid out30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXCANRECESSION
EventKXCANRECESSION-27MAR01
MarketKXCANRECESSION-27MAR01-T2
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.