Will the Citrini scenario happen?
Will the Citrini scenario happen?
No fees
$25,820,367 volChance
Yes
29%
▼ 1
Yes
29%
▼ 1
Market Rules
Yes
If at least 3 of:
- unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS)
- S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance
- Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix
- labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%
- CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release
Timeline and payout
Market openFeb 25, 2026 · 10:00am EST
Market closesJul 1, 2028 · 10:00am EDT
Projected payoutJul 1, 2028 · 10:30am EDT
SeriesKXCITRINI
EventKXCITRINI-28JUL01
MarketKXCITRINI-28JUL01
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event
About
The "Citrini scenario" refers to a viral essay by Citrini Research, "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis," that sketches a chain of AI-driven economic stress outcomes. Read the original piece here: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic