Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?
Chance
Gavin Newsom
35%
▲ 6
Gavin Newsom
35%
▲ 6
Kamala Harris
21%
Kamala Harris
21%
Pete Buttigieg
6.1%
Pete Buttigieg
6.1%
7 more
Market Rules
Gavin Newsom
If Gavin Newsom is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from person, the Federal Election Commission, Ballotpedia, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Politico, Axios, CNN, ABC, CBS, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, and official campaign websites or social media accounts of declared candidates.
A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance. Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify. The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.
Timeline and payout
Market openSep 16, 2025 · 5:00pm EDT
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD
EventKXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07
MarketKXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-GNEW
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