U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

Begins in 133 days · Oct 20, 8:00am EDT

$58,933 vol

Chance

Below 5%

20%

▲ 18

Below 5%

20%

▲ 18

Market Rules

Below 5%

If the U.S. federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for fiscal year 2026, as reported in the U.S. Treasury / Office of Management and Budget Joint Statement on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2026, is below 5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from U.S. Treasury / OMB.

Timeline and payout

Market openMar 11, 2026 · 4:00pm EDT

Market closesAfter the outcome occurs

Projected payout30 minutes after closing

This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released. Otherwise, it closes by Oct 20, 2026 at 8:29am EDT.

SeriesKXDEFGDP

EventKXDEFGDP-26OCT20

MarketKXDEFGDP-26OCT20-T5

Insider trading is prohibited

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.