US effective tariff rate for Q1 2026?

US effective tariff rate for Q1 2026?

Above 5%

Yes

Above 5%

Yes

Above 7.5%

Yes

Above 7.5%

Yes

Above 10%

No

Above 10%

No

2 more

Market Rules

Above 5%

The outcome is 9.96

If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q1 2026 is above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from BEA.

Note: this event is directional.

Timeline and payout

Market openFeb 24, 2026 · 10:00am EST

Market closedAfter the outcome occurs

Paid out30 minutes after closing

This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released. Otherwise, it closes by Apr 30, 2026 at 8:29am EDT.

SeriesKXEFFTARIFF

EventKXEFFTARIFF-26APR30

MarketKXEFFTARIFF-26APR30-T5

Insider trading is prohibited

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.