July 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP
July 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP
8%
8%
8%
8%
9%
9%
Market Rules
For all outcomes in this market, U3 refers to the single-decimal seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3), and NFP growth refers to the seasonally adjusted over-the-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment, as reported in thousands of jobs by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: U3 uses ECONSTAT and NFP growth uses PAYROLLS. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Cabinet members and their immediate staff.
- Federal Reserve Board members and regional Fed presidents.
- Members of Congress and their senior staff.
- White House senior staff and advisors.
- Heads of relevant federal agencies referenced in components.
- Employees of Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau.
- Employees with pre-release access to economic data.
- Federal statistical agency employees involved in data compilation.
- Contractors with access to embargoed data.
- Campaign managers and senior campaign staff for referenced candidates.
- Political party leadership if election/appointment components included.
- Judicial clerks if Supreme Court components included.
- Congressional committee staff for relevant committees.
- Journalists with embargo access to referenced data.
- Employees of Source Agencies who cover relevant beats.
- Political polling organization employees if polling components included.
- Foreign government officials involved in treaty/agreement negotiations (if applicable).
- Diplomatic staff with knowledge of agreement timing.
- International organization employees (IMF, World Bank, UN) if relevant.
- Immediate family members of all above categories.
- Household members of prohibited persons.
- Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event