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US real GDP growth in Q4 2026? Odds & Predictions

Series Image

GDP

US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?

4

Begins in 104 days · Jan 28, 7:30am EST

Chance

Above 1.5%

69%

Above 1.5%

69%

Above 2.0%

58%

Above 2.0%

58%

Above 2.5%

46%

Above 2.5%

46%

6 more

US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?

Above 0.0%

Dollars$

Odds

99% chance

Max payout

Jan 28, 2027

$0

Loading the GDP outlook.

$59,503 volSolid: realized annual growth (BEA). Dashed: market-implied, quarterly (KXGDP) near term, annual (KXGDPYEAR) beyond. For reference.

Scenarios load with the GDP forward curve.

$59,503 volDebt rolled from CBO's Dec 2025 level (~$30.2T, pub 62105 Table 1-3): CBO's primary-deficit share of GDP (Table 1-2, interest-free) plus interest that reprices ~17% of the stock a year toward the fed funds market, over nominal GDP built from the KXGDPYEAR growth markets and the CPI inflation markets. Each line shifts the primary-deficit share; 0 = CBO. For reference.

$59,502 vol