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Series Image
  1. GDP

US GDP growth in Q1 2026?

4



Above 1.0%
Yes

Above 1.0%

Yes

Above 1.5%
Yes

Above 1.5%

Yes

Above 2.0%
No

Above 2.0%

No

5 more

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Illustration of gavel
Determined
Outcome: Yes
Explore Economics
Loading the GDP outlook.
$981,370 volSolid: realized annual growth (BEA). Dashed: market-implied, quarterly (KXGDP) near term, annual (KXGDPYEAR) beyond. For reference.
Scenarios load with the GDP forward curve.
$981,370 volDebt rolled from CBO's Dec 2025 level (~$30.2T, pub 62105 Table 1-3): CBO's primary-deficit share of GDP (Table 1-2, interest-free) plus interest that reprices ~17% of the stock a year toward the fed funds market, over nominal GDP built from the KXGDPYEAR growth markets and the CPI inflation markets. Each line shifts the primary-deficit share; 0 = CBO. For reference.
$981,370 vol