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Trending Elections Politics Sports Culture Crypto Commodities Climate Economics Mentions Finance Tech & Science

Texas Senate margin of victory Odds & Predictions 2026

US Elections

Texas Senate margin of victory

Series Image

US Elections

Texas Senate margin of victory

Begins in 105 days · Nov 3, 8:00am EST

Chance

Ken Paxton, 1+ pts

55%

Ken Paxton, 1+ pts

55%

Ken Paxton, 3+ pts

46%

Ken Paxton, 3+ pts

46%

Ken Paxton, 5+ pts

31%

▼ 1

Ken Paxton, 5+ pts

31%

▼ 1

4 more

Race Intel· Texas

CandidatePollsRaisedSmall Donors

James TalaricoDem45.9%
45.9%
$68.6M
54%
$68.6M raised·54% small donors
Ken PaxtonRep45.2%
45.2%
$9.2M
19%
$9.2M raised·19% small donors

Polls · Jul 20 · FEC Q2 2026 · Small-donor ≤ $200

Ken Paxton, 1+ pts

Dollars$

Odds

0% chance

Max payout

$0