How many House incumbents will not seek re-election by March 1?
How many House incumbents will not seek re-election by March 1?
Below 50
No
Below 50
No
Between 50 and 51
Yes
Between 50 and 51
Yes
Between 52 and 53
No
Between 52 and 53
No
3 more
Market Rules
Below 50
If the number of U.S. House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 election cycle, as reported by Ballotpedia, is below 50 at 10:00 AM ET on March 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Ballotpedia.
"Between" is inclusive of the lower and upper bound. Ballotpedia's count includes incumbents who are retiring from public office and those leaving to run for other offices (Senate, Governor, Attorney General, etc.). Deaths and resignations do not count. As of Jan 27, the count is 49.
Timeline and payout
Market openFeb 3, 2026 · 10:00am EST
Market closedMar 1, 2026 · 9:59am EST
Paid outMay 30, 2026 · 11:30am EDT
SeriesKXNOTSEEKREELECTION
EventKXNOTSEEKREELECTION-26MAR01
MarketKXNOTSEEKREELECTION-26MAR01-T50
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