How low will the Claude Opus 4.8 output token price get this year?
How low will the Claude Opus 4.8 output token price get this year?
Chance
$20/MTok or below
33%
▼ 16
$20/MTok or below
33%
▼ 16
$15/MTok or below
19%
▼ 30
$15/MTok or below
19%
▼ 30
$10/MTok or below
13%
▼ 36
$10/MTok or below
13%
▼ 36
$5/MTok or below
5%
▼ 44
$5/MTok or below
5%
▼ 44
Market Rules
$20/MTok or below
If the Output Token Price of Claude Opus 4.8 on https://claude.com/pricing#api is at or below $20 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Anthropic.
The market resolves based on the price listed of the Output Token Price for Claude Opus 4.8 in in 2026 on https://claude.com/pricing#api. The price must be explicitly displayed on the API pricing section of that page. If the product is renamed or succeeded, the closest equivalent product controls. If the page is unavailable on the expiration date, the last available published price will be used. Prices are in USD per MTok. Any promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing will not be used for resolution — only the standard listed API price applies.
If no data is available by the Expiration Date, the last available price for Claude Opus 4.8 in 2026 will be used. If no prior value is available, all strikes shall resolve to “No”.
Timeline and payout
Market openJun 8, 2026 · 3:00pm EDT
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXOPUS48OY
EventKXOPUS48OY-27
MarketKXOPUS48OY-27-NA-20
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.