How much will the Republican reconciliation bill cost?

How much will the Republican reconciliation bill cost?

At least $1 trillion

Yes

At least $1 trillion

Yes

At least $2 trillion

Yes

At least $2 trillion

Yes

At least $3 trillion

Yes

At least $3 trillion

Yes

6 more

Market Rules

At least $1 trillion

The outcome is 3.4 Trillion

Resolves Yes if the cost of the next budget reconciliation bill to become law before Jan 1, 2027 is at least $1 trillion.Outcome verified from CBO.

Clarification (6/11/25 at 3:15am ET): Currently, the Instructions point towards the “Estimated Outlays” line of CBO estimates. To be clear, the underlying for this contract (“cost”) is the net budgetary effect of the first budget reconciliation bill to become law - this includes both changes in outlays AND changes in revenues, not outlays alone, over the relevant ten-year period. This equals: Total Changes in Direct Spending (Outlays) - Total Changes in Revenues.

Note: this event is directional.

Timeline and payout

Market openMay 15, 2025 · 10:00am EDT

Market closedAfter the outcome occurs

Paid out30 minutes after closing

This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Jul 7, 2025 at 4:00pm EDT.

SeriesKXRECCOST

EventKXRECCOST-27

MarketKXRECCOST-27-1

Insider trading is prohibited

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

At least $1 trillion

Dollars

Odds

0% chance

Max payout

How much will the Republican reconciliation bill cost?

How much will the Republican reconciliation bill cost?

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Market Rules

At least $1 trillion

$0