Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?

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Before 2030

$14,952vol

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Rules summary

If SpaceX launches a manned Starship mission to Mars by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from SpaceX.

Timeline and payout

Trading prohibitions

About

SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk, aims to facilitate the colonization of Mars via the development and mass manufacturing of the Starship launch vehicle. The company plans to send a million people to Mars using a thousand Starships sent during a Mars launch window, which occurs approximately every 26 months. Proposed journeys would require 80 to 150 days of transit time, averaging approximately 100 days.

Decoding the market

Case for Before 2030

'[Elon Musk] prophesised on X that the mega-rocket will reach the red planet within five years. 'Starship will be on Mars within 5 years,' Musk wrote in reply to a post on the rocket's latest test flight.' (via Mashable - 3.18.24)

Case for Not before 2030

'[Musk] believes it'll be within 10 years but he's always wrong by two or three times — how fast self-driving will be; how fast the Cybertruck will be made; how fast we will get to Mars. I think in 30 years, there'll be missions to Mars. In 10 years, it's unlikely.' (Musk biographer Walter Isaacson via BusinessInsider - 12.20.23)

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