Will xAI release a reasoning model before April 2025?

Will xAI release a reasoning model before April 2025?

$0 vol

Order book

Yes

Market Rules

The outcome is Yes

If xAI releases a "Reasoning LLM" is defined as a large language model whose public documentation specifies that it generates outputs by employing explicit, multi-step reasoning processes (such as chain-of-thought prompting, formal logic inference, or enhanced contextual memory) rather than solely relying on pattern-based text generation. before Apr 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from xAI.

Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

Timeline and payout

Market openFeb 18, 2025 · 10:00am EST

Market closedAfter the outcome occurs

Paid out30 minutes after closing

This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Feb 18, 2025 at 10:01am EST.

SeriesKXXAIREASON

EventKXXAIREASON-25

MarketKXXAIREASON-25

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