Important information: Please read the additional details below for information on ties.
Rules summary for
Gemini
If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Apr 30, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard.
As of April 2025: If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.Note: this event is mutually exclusive.
Timeline and payout
About
The Large Language Model (LLM) market is highly competitive, with several key players vying for dominance. LLMs are becoming essential components of the digital world, enabling sophisticated search tools and better customer service across various industries. The global LLM market was valued at US$6.66 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.71%, reaching an estimated US$41.17 billion by 2030.