Who will win the popular vote?
Who will win the popular vote?
Donald Trump
Yes
Donald Trump
Yes
Kamala Harris
No
Kamala Harris
No
Market Rules
Donald Trump
If Donald Trump or another representative of the Republican party wins the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from United States Congress.
Note: this event is mutually exclusive.
Timeline and payout
Market openOct 7, 2024 · 8:15am EDT
Market closedAfter the outcome occurs
Paid out1 minute after closing
SeriesPOPVOTE
EventPOPVOTE-24
MarketPOPVOTE-24-R
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Holders of federal and statewide public office.
- Paid campaign staffers on Presidential campaigns.
- Anyone working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
- Third-party vendors and contractors (and employees thereof) of Presidential campaigns.
- Paid employees of Democratic and Republican Party organizations, such as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee or the Republican National Committee.
- Paid employees of Political Action Committees (PACs) and “Super PACs” (independent expenditure only political committees).
- Paid employees of major polling organizations.
- Employees of Decision Desks at major media organizations.
- All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members.
- All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
- All staff of the Office of the President of the United States
- All staff of the Office of the Vice President of the United States
- All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.