Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Popular vote margin of victory (0.25% ranges)?
Trump by 1.00-1.24%
No
Trump by 1.00-1.24%
No
Trump by 1.25-1.49%
Yes
Trump by 1.25-1.49%
Yes
Trump by 1.50-1.74%
No
Trump by 1.50-1.74%
No
More markets
Market Rules
Harris by 0-99.99%
If the popular vote margin of victory is 0% Below for Trump or another representative of the Republican party in the 2024 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from United States Congress.
If a candidate has won but has a margin that rounds to 0.00 (for example, winning by one vote), then that would resolve the bracket that has the winning candidate 0.00-0.24% as Yes.
Timeline and payout
Market openNov 7, 2024 · 6:00pm EST
Market closedJan 6, 2025 · 2:00pm EST
Paid outJan 7, 2025 · 10:00am EST
SeriesPOPVOTEMOVSMALL
EventPOPVOTEMOVSMALL-24
MarketPOPVOTEMOVSMALL-24-R-T0
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Holders of federal and statewide public office.
- Paid campaign staffers on Presidential campaigns.
- Anyone working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
- Third-party vendors and contractors (and employees thereof) of Presidential campaigns
- Paid employees of Democratic and Republican Party organizations, such as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee or the Republican National Committee.
- Paid employees of Political Action Committees (PACs) and “Super PACs” (independent expenditure only political committees).
- Paid employees of major polling organizations.
- Employees of Decision Desks at major media organizations.
- All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members.
- All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
- All staff of the Office of the President of the United States.
- All staff of the Office of the Vice President of the United States.
- All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices.
- Any foreign national. This is defined as an individual who is: (1) not a citizen of the United States and (2) not lawfully admitted for permanent residence (as defined in 8 U.S.C. § 1101(a)(20)); or a foreign principal, as defined in 22 U.S.C. § 611(b). Section 611(b) defines a foreign principal to include a foreign government or political party; or a partnership, association, corporation, organization, or other combination of persons organized under the laws of a foreign country or whose principal place of business is in a foreign country.
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.