Tesla Robotaxi revealed on time?
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Before Aug 9 (+0)
$60,620vol
No
Rules summary
If Tesla has revealed a robotaxi before Aug 9, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Tesla.
Reveal means a physical mock up that is shown, similar to the cybertruck event on 2019. A drawing isn't sufficient. Timeline and payout
About
Tesla plans to unveil its Robotaxi on August 8, 2024, as announced by Elon Musk on X. This marks a major step towards Tesla's goal of a fully autonomous taxi service. The Robotaxi is a purpose-built vehicle for autonomous driving, unlike Waymo and Cruise, which use modified off-the-shelf electric vehicles. However, Musk is known for making overly optimistic predictions, particularly regarding timelines.
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Decoding the market
Case for Before Aug 9, 2024
According to The Verge, the Tesla Semi was unveiled at a press conference on November 16, 2017. However, according to Reuters, the first Semi was not delivered until late 2022. The point being, it's easier to 'unveil' a product than to produce it, so the Robotaxi's unveiling could easily be on schedule.
Case for Not before Aug 9, 2024
Musk is often late on his timeframes: '[Musk] believes it'll be within 10 years but he's always wrong by two or three times — how fast self-driving will be; how fast the Cybertruck will be made; how fast we will get to Mars. I think in 30 years, there'll be missions to Mars. In 10 years, it's unlikely.' (Musk biographer Walter Isaacson via BusinessInsider - 12.20.23)
