Tesla reveals low-cost car?
Before 2025 100%
Before 2026 100%
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Low-cost car announced (+0)
$34,327vol
Before 2025
Yes
Before 2026
Yes
Rules summary for
Before 2025
If Tesla reveals a low-cost car (<$30,000) before Jan 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Tesla.
Reveal means a physical mock up that is shown, similar to the cybertruck event on 2019. A drawing isn't sufficient. Timeline and payout
Trading prohibitions
About
Tesla has been working on introducing a more affordable electric vehicle (EV) to the market. The company initially planned to produce a car priced at $25,000, but recent updates suggest that the cost reduction may not be as significant as expected. Tesla's engineering chief, Lars Moravy, indicated that the company would avoid investing in a revolutionary manufacturing process, potentially signaling the abandonment of the Model 2 plan. The cheapest current Model 3 has a starting price of approximately $39,000.
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Decoding the market
Case for Not before 2026
'A report from Reuters alleges that Tesla has canceled its cheap car project, often referred to as its $25,000 car, or the Model 2. Instead, the report says Tesla will focus on autonomous taxis using the same platform.' (Edmunds - 4.12.24)
Case for Before 2026
'After the Reuters story was published, Musk and Tesla's chief designer, Franz von Holzhausen, quickly cast doubt on the claims made by the report. Musk did so via X (formerly Twitter) telling followers that 'Reuters is lying' in response to a tweet by an X user and then posting, 'Tesla Robotaxi unveil on 8/8.'' (Edmunds - 4.12.24)
