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  1. Home
  2. /Weather
  3. /Christmas

Will it snow on Christmas?

Even a flurry counts. Live market chances of new snow on Christmas Day 2026 in 11 U.S. cities — a trace at each city’s weather station is enough.

43days to ChristmasMarkets close at local midnight on December 25
Minneapolis–Saint Paul · KMSPMinneapolis45%Minneapolis: 45%, chance of snow on Christmas Daychance of snow on Christmas Day
Trade Minneapolis
Christmas Day snow

Will it snow in your city on Christmas 2026?

Minneapolis leads at 45%, then Milwaukee at 39%.
City · stationChance of Christmas snow

  1. 1Minneapolis

    Minneapolis–Saint Paul · KMSP
    45%

  2. 2Milwaukee

    Milwaukee Mitchell · KMKE
    39%

  3. 3Detroit

    Detroit Metropolitan · KDTW
    36%

  4. 4Denver

    Denver International · KDEN
    36%

  5. 5Chicago

    Chicago O'Hare · KORD · 2025: no snow (204,498 contracts)
    34%

  6. 6Pittsburgh

    Pittsburgh International · KPIT
    34%

  7. 7Boston

    Boston Logan · KBOS · 2025: no snow (96,263 contracts)
    25%

  8. 8New York City

    Central Park · KNYC · 2025: no snow (156,581 contracts)
    21%

  9. 9Philadelphia

    Philadelphia International · KPHL
    14%

  10. 10Seattle

    Seattle–Tacoma · KSEA
    12%

  11. 11Washington, DC

    Reagan National · KDCA
    12%
December 25

Christmas Day NBA and NFL games 2026

5 NBA games and 3 NFL games on Christmas Day, all times Eastern. Kalshi lists game markets about a week before tip-off; until then, each matchup links to its preview.
NBA12:00 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks

San Antonio SpursNew York Knicks
Spurs vs. Knicks preview
NBA2:30 PM ET

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics

Miami HeatBoston Celtics
Heat vs. Celtics preview
NBA5:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers at Los Angeles Lakers

Philadelphia 76ersLos Angeles Lakers
76ers vs. Lakers preview
NBA8:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves

Oklahoma City ThunderMinnesota Timberwolves
Thunder vs. Timberwolves preview
NBA10:30 PM ET

Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors

Denver NuggetsGolden State Warriors
Nuggets vs. Warriors preview
NFL1:00 PM ET

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Green Bay PackersChicago Bears
Packers vs. Bears preview
NFL4:30 PM ET

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos

Buffalo BillsDenver Broncos
Bills vs. Broncos preview
NFL8:15 PM ET

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Los Angeles RamsSeattle Seahawks
Rams vs. Seahawks preview
Thanksgiving 2025

Who won the 2025 turkey pardon?

Gobble and Waddle were up for the White House’s Thanksgiving pardon in 2025. Kalshi’s market on which turkey would be pardoned settled Yes on Gobble and No on Waddle, with 220,194 contracts traded. Kalshi lists the 2026 pardon closer to Thanksgiving.

Gobble

Pardoned · settled Yes65,458 contracts

Waddle

Not pardoned · settled No154,736 contracts
National Thanksgiving Turkey Pardoning Ceremony · Thanksgiving 2025See the 2025 market
All month

How much snow will fall in December 2026?

Christmas Day is one day; December is thirty-one. These markets ask how much snow each city’s station records over the whole month, in thresholds — so a city can be a long shot for Christmas snow and still a favorite for a snowy December. 11 cities, priced by the market.

New York City

43%chance of more than 2 in

(-5 pts 1D)▼Above 4 in 37% · Above 6 in 29% · Above 8 in 23%

Boston

63%chance of more than 2 in

(+5 pts 1D)▲Above 4 in 55% · Above 6 in 47% · Above 8 in 28%

Chicago

81%chance of more than 2 in

(+4 pts 1D)▲Above 4 in 56% · Above 6 in 46% · Above 8 in 33%

Denver

75%chance of more than 2 in

(-11 pts 1D)▼Above 4 in 55% · Above 6 in 46% · Above 8 in 36%

Detroit

70%chance of more than 2 in

(-14 pts 1D)▼Above 4 in 64% · Above 6 in 47% · Above 8 in 43%

Milwaukee

67%chance of more than 4 in

(-11 pts 1D)▼Above 8 in 42% · Above 12 in 32% · Above 16 in 23%

Minneapolis

79%chance of more than 4 in

(-10 pts 1D)▼Above 8 in 60% · Above 12 in 36% · Above 16 in 27%

Philadelphia

21%chance of more than 2 in

(+4 pts 1D)▲Above 4 in 18% · Above 6 in 13% · Above 8 in 8%

Pittsburgh

65%chance of more than 2 in

(+1 pts 1D)▲Above 4 in 55% · Above 6 in 41% · Above 8 in 33%

Seattle

21%chance of more than 2 in

(+2 pts 1D)▲Above 4 in 10% · Above 6 in 7% · Above 8 in 6%

Washington, DC

30%chance of more than 2 in

(+8 pts 1D)▲Above 4 in 17% · Above 6 in 18% · Above 8 in 16%
Holiday season

More holiday markets

Holiday shopping and ski-country snow, each on its own market page.
  • Holiday shopping    Holiday retail jobs added this seasonView market
  • Holiday shopping    Cyber Monday online spendingView market
  • Ski snowfall    Stowe snowfall by Christmas EveView market
  • Ski snowfall    Park City snowfall by Christmas EveView market
  • Ski snowfall    Mammoth snowfall by Christmas EveView market
  • Ski snowfall    Keystone snowfall by Christmas EveView market
  • Ski snowfall    Beaver Creek snowfall by Christmas EveView market
  • Ski snowfall    Northstar snowfall by Christmas EveView market
Keep exploring

More weather and holiday pages

Kalshi’s weather markets and the Christmas Day matchups.
Weather markets hubAll climate and weather marketsCentral Park weatherNBA matchupsNFL matchups
The fine print

How the Christmas snow markets work

Each of the 11 markets asks one Yes/No question: will snow fall at the city’s named weather station on December 25, 2026? Yes pays $1 if the station records more than 0 inches of new snow that day, on its local calendar. A reported trace counts as snow. Snow already on the ground does not: the markets measure new snowfall, not a white landscape.That makes the question broader than the classic “white Christmas”, which NOAA’s climate records count as at least an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. A city can have a brown Christmas by that definition and still settle Yes here, if a few flakes fall at the station during the day.Results come from The Weather Company’s official, non-preliminary snowfall reports for each station. A market closes at local midnight at the end of Christmas Day — or earlier, as soon as snow is recorded, because each contract closes early once its event happens. A blank or missing report is not treated as zero.Prices are the market’s implied chance in percent: a 30¢ Yes contract is a 30% chance. They come from the middle of the order book, or the last trade when one side of the book is empty. A market with no trades and no tight book (sides within 15¢) has no price yet, and this page says so rather than guessing one.

Christmas snow questions

Will it snow in New York City on Christmas 2026?
Kalshi’s market puts the chance of snow at Central Park (KNYC) on Christmas Day at 21%. Last Christmas the market settled No.
What counts as snow for these markets?
Any new snowfall recorded at the city’s named weather station on December 25, by its local calendar day — a trace counts. Snow already on the ground does not. That is broader than the classic “white Christmas” of an inch of snow on the ground, so a city can settle Yes here without a white landscape.
Did it snow last Christmas?
Kalshi listed the question for New York City, Boston and Chicago last Christmas, and all 3 settled No: no snow fell at their stations on December 25, 2025.
Which cities have a Christmas snow market?
11: New York City (Central Park, KNYC); Boston (Boston Logan, KBOS); Chicago (Chicago O'Hare, KORD); Denver (Denver International, KDEN); Detroit (Detroit Metropolitan, KDTW); Milwaukee (Milwaukee Mitchell, KMKE); Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul, KMSP); Philadelphia (Philadelphia International, KPHL); Pittsburgh (Pittsburgh International, KPIT); Seattle (Seattle–Tacoma, KSEA); Washington, DC (Reagan National, KDCA).
When do the Christmas snow markets close?
At local midnight at the end of Christmas Day — or earlier, as soon as snow is recorded, because each market closes early once its event happens. Results follow The Weather Company’s official snowfall reports.
Are these betting odds?
They are market prices. Each city’s contract pays $1 if it snows there on Christmas Day, and traders buy and sell it on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange. The price is the market’s implied chance: a 30¢ contract is a 30% chance. Trading involves risk.
Can I trade on Christmas snow on Kalshi?
Yes. Each city’s question is a Yes/No market on Kalshi. A Yes contract pays $1 if snow is recorded at its station on Christmas Day; a No contract pays $1 if it isn’t. Prices move as traders buy and sell, and trading involves risk.
Which turkey was pardoned at Thanksgiving 2025?
Gobble. Kalshi listed a market on which turkey would receive the White House’s ceremonial Thanksgiving pardon, and it settled Yes on Gobble.