The Market's College Football Top 25
Every team's Kalshi prices for the College Football Playoff, ranked by one 0–100 score built from market prices and on-field results. 60% of each score is what traders are paying right now for a team to make the playoff or win the title; the rest is the résumé: what the team has done, weighed by who they did it against.
2026 · after Week 5Updated Friday, Oct 9, 2026 · 6:39 AM ET
Ranking method: Every team is scored before any are shown. Prices are scaled across the whole field to sum to twelve playoff places, and the on-field and market-strength ratings are scaled against it too, so a shorter board would be a different board.
Market-implied ranking
2026 College Football Power Rankings after Week 5
25 of 54 teams
| Score and its inputs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Notre DameIndependent | 5-0 | 80.49 | 99% | 96.1 | 100.0 |
| 2 | Miami (FL)ACC | 5-0 | 73.58 | 99% | 89.8 | 65.7 |
| 3 | Ohio StateBig Ten | 4-1 | 72.72 | 90% | 83.5 | 85.9 |
| 4 | GeorgiaSEC | 5-0 | 72.32 | 95% | 87.4 | 66.7 |
| 5 | TexasSEC | 4-0 | 71.83 | 94% | 89.8 | 62.6 |
| 6 | AlabamaSEC | 5-0 | 69.91 | 89% | 97.7 | 56.0 |
| 7 | IndianaBig Ten | 5-0 | 65.68 | 86% | 87.4 | 55.0 |
| 8 | LSUSEC | 4-1 | 55.68 | 62% | 79.3 | 68.3 |
| 9 | OregonBig Ten | 3-1 | 51.38 | 62% | 70.2 | 54.6 |
| 10 | UtahBig 12 | 4-0 | 49.22 | 40% | 85.8 | 78.3 |
| 11 | Ole MissSEC | 3-1 | 46.29 | 50% | 64.3 | 64.6 |
| 12 | Texas TechBig 12 | 5-0 | 45.19 | 37% | 84.3 | 61.2 |
| 13 | FloridaSEC | 4-1 | 44.37 | 46% | 72.9 | 49.3 |
| 14 | TennesseeSEC | 4-1 | 40.12 | 33% | 75.2 | 53.1 |
| 15 | UCLABig Ten | 4-0 | 36.47 | 23% | 87.9 | 34.9 |
| 16 | BYUBig 12 | 4-0 | 36.33 | 24% | 83.2 | 38.5 |
| 17 | MissouriSEC | 4-1 | 33.56 | 20% | 74.8 | 45.4 |
| 18 | James MadisonSun Belt | 5-0 | 32.59 | 3% | 82.6 | 71.0 |
| 19 | USCBig Ten | 5-1 | 32.30 | 17% | 73.0 | 47.8 |
| 20 | PittsburghACC | 5-0 | 31.71 | 5% | 83.8 | 58.8 |
| 21 | Texas A&MSEC | 3-2 | 30.82 | 8% | 62.9 | 77.8 |
| 22 | IowaBig Ten | 4-1 | 30.28 | 15% | 68.8 | 46.5 |
| 23 | Mississippi StateSEC | 4-1 | 29.72 | 14% | 75.1 | 35.5 |
| 24 | HoustonBig 12 | 4-1 | 29.35 | 8% | 75.1 | 47.6 |
| 25 | Oklahoma StateBig 12 | 3-1 | 29.03 | 10% | 66.3 | 54.7 |
Kalshi market viewThe market's price on each team making the playoff and winning the national title, and the conference adjustment between the quoted price and the number the score used. Tap any price to trade the market it came from.
Playoff and national championship prices
| Team | Playoff mid | Conf. value | Score used | Title mid |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Notre DameIndependent | 92% | +1.65 | 99%−1.2 pts | 12% |
| 2Miami (FL)ACC | 93% | +1.65 | 99%−1.2 pts | 11% |
| 3Ohio StateBig Ten | 82% | +4.25 | 90%+0.7 pts | 17% |
| 4GeorgiaSEC | 85% | +5.02 | 95%+1.1 pts | 16% |
| 5TexasSEC | 85% | +5.02 | 94%+1.3 pts | 14% |
| 6AlabamaSEC | 77% | +5.02 | 89%+4.0 pts | 10% |
| 7IndianaBig Ten | 77% | +4.25 | 86%+1.6 pts | 8% |
| 8LSUSEC | 47% | +5.02 | 62%+10.4 pts | 5% |
| 9OregonBig Ten | 53% | +4.25 | 62%+4.4 pts | 5% |
| 10UtahBig 12 | 46% | +2.31 | 40%−10.3 pts | <1% |
| 11Ole MissSEC | 36% | +5.02 | 50%+10.7 pts | 3% |
| 12Texas TechBig 12 | 43% | +2.31 | 37%−10.1 pts | 2% |
| 13FloridaSEC | 33% | +5.02 | 46%+10.4 pts | 2% |
| 14TennesseeSEC | 22% | +5.02 | 33%+9.0 pts | <1% |
| 15UCLABig Ten | 18% | +4.25 | 23%+3.4 pts | – |
| 16BYUBig 12 | 30% | +2.31 | 24%−8.3 pts | <1% |
| 17MissouriSEC | 13% | +5.02 | 20%+6.1 pts | <1% |
| 18James MadisonSun Belt | 20% | −3.26 | 3%−18.4 pts | <1% |
| 19USCBig Ten | 13% | +4.25 | 17%+2.7 pts | <1% |
| 20PittsburghACC | 8% | +1.65 | 5%−3.7 pts | <1% |
| 21Texas A&MSEC | 5% | +5.02 | 8%+2.8 pts | <1% |
| 22IowaBig Ten | 12% | +4.25 | 15%+2.4 pts | <1% |
| 23Mississippi StateSEC | 9% | +5.02 | 14%+4.5 pts | <1% |
| 24HoustonBig 12 | 11% | +2.31 | 8%−3.7 pts | <1% |
| 25Oklahoma StateBig 12 | 14% | +2.31 | 10%−4.5 pts | <1% |
MethodologyFour inputs: 40% playoff price, 20% title price, 25% on-field results and 15% market-implied strength on this update. The weights are computed from how much football has been played and how much of the playoff race is still undecided. They depend on the date, not on any team.
How the Kalshi Power Score works
40%Playoff priceKalshi's price on this team making the twelve-team playoff, scaled so the whole board sums to 12 places, then adjusted for how hard its conference road is.Shrinks as the playoff race resolves; still wide open, so it carries the most weight.
20%Championship priceIts price to win it all, scaled so the field sums to one champion. No path to worry about: winning the title means beating everyone.
25%On-field resultsOpponent-adjusted margin, win percentage adjusted for strength of schedule, and the Pythagorean win rate, blended 45/35/20 across all 138 FBS teams.
15%Market strengthA strength rating fitted to Kalshi's individual game prices, so it reads quality with no route to the playoff mixed into it.
1 · The market prices40% playoff + 20% titleBoth are scaled first: playoff prices so the field sums to 12 places, title prices so it sums to one champion, because a futures market always adds up to more than the outcomes that exist. That step ties every team together: a team's score can move when its own market did not, because someone else's did and 12 places is a fixed pool.
2 · What happened on the field0.45 adj. win% + 0.35 SRS + 0.2 PythagoreanSRS solves one rating per team such that every game's margin is explained at once, after stripping 4.53 points of home field and capping the margin at 28. The Pythagorean term runs at an exponent of 2.22. All three are scaled across the FBS field and floored at 12.
3 · The conference handicaplog-odds shift of 0.3146 × (conference − +3.56)A playoff price answers "will this team get in", which blends how good a team is with how easy its road is. The handicap subtracts an estimate of the road, measured as each conference's mean rating last season. Applied in log-odds so no price can be pushed past 0 or 100, then rescaled back to 12 places.
A ranking made of prices, not opinions
A poll asks a few dozen people who they think is best. This one asks a market of millions, every one of them with real money on the answer. Each score starts from the price of two Kalshi contracts: will this team make the College Football Playoff, and will it win the national championship.A price can't tell you everything, so the ranking also weighs the résumé: what has actually happened on the field, over the whole season. Every game counts on its own terms, with each margin adjusted for the opponent and for home field. The playoff price is also adjusted for conference strength. As the market's consensus shifts, so does this ranking.Week 6The next slate Kalshi prices, led by the 8 involving a ranked team. These game prices are also what the market-strength leg is fitted to, so a result here moves the board twice: once through the score, and once through every price that re-prints around it.
Games that can move the board
#7 Indiana at NebraskaWeek 6 · Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ET27%Nebraska winStanford at #1 Notre DameWeek 6 · Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET>99%Notre Dame win#5 Texas vs #29 OklahomaWeek 6 · Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET · neutral site26%Oklahoma win#15 UCLA at #9 OregonWeek 6 · Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET79%Oregon winMaryland at #3 Ohio StateWeek 6 · Oct 10 · 4:15 PM ET>99%Ohio State win#8 LSU at #34 KentuckyWeek 6 · Oct 10 · 7:00 PM ET26%Kentucky win#4 Georgia at #6 AlabamaWeek 6 · Oct 10 · 7:30 PM ET54%Alabama winKansas at #10 UtahWeek 6 · Oct 10 · 10:15 PM ET87%Utah win
FAQ
College football Top 25 questions
How is the Kalshi Power Score calculated?
Each team gets a score from 0 to 100 built from four inputs on this update: 40% playoff price, 20% title price, 25% on-field results and 15% market-implied strength. The weights are recomputed every time the board is built, from how much football has been played and how much of the playoff race is still undecided.
Why is Notre Dame ranked first?
Notre Dame scores 80.49. Kalshi prices it at 92% to make the playoff (99% once scaled to the field and adjusted for conference), 12% to win the championship, an on-field rating of 96.1 out of 100 from a 5-0 start, and 100.0 on market-implied strength.
Why are only 54 teams ranked and not all 138?
The board is every team Kalshi lists a playoff market for, which is currently 54. A team with no playoff market cannot be scored, because two of its inputs would be empty. All 54 are scored before anything is shown: the price scaling sums across the whole field, both on-field measures are scaled against the field's own best and worst, and the handicap's reference point is an average over every team, so slicing to a top 25 before scoring would change every number that survived.
What is the conference adjustment, and why does Notre Dame get the ACC number?
A playoff price answers "will this team get in", which mixes how good a team is with how easy its road is, and two teams can sit at 55% for opposite reasons. So each team's price is shifted by its conference's mean rating from last season, in log-odds, and the board is rescaled back to 12 places. Notre Dame is an independent, so there is no conference value to look up and a rule had to be chosen: it takes the ACC's +1.65, because six of its twelve games are against ACC teams, ten are against Power Four opposition, and every ACC team receives that number regardless of its own schedule. That is a judgment call rather than a measurement, and it is stated as one.
Why did a team move when nobody played?
Because the market moved. The top of this ranking is often separated by well under a point, and a one-cent move in a playoff price has been enough to swap No. 1 and No. 2.
Can I trade these markets?
Yes. Every price on this page is a live Kalshi market, and tapping one opens an order ticket on that exact contract. The prices shown next to a team in the ranking are the model’s: scaled to the field, and for the playoff column adjusted for conference. The market table shows the book’s own midpoint: halfway between the bid and the ask, and a half-price where only one side is quoted, so it is a fair-value read rather than a number you can fill at. What you would actually pay is the ask, which the order ticket and the championship rail both show in cents.