Clarification (3/3/26): While the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026 reflects the reorganization of USAID functions into the State Department, it continues to appropriate funds for the USAID Office of Inspector General, which remains operational under that title. Because funding has not fully ended for all entities operating under the USAID name, this market will not resolve to Yes at this time.
Which agencies will Trump eliminate?
Which agencies will Trump eliminate?
Chance
USAID
United States Agency for International Development
39%
USAID
United States Agency for International Development
39%
EPA
Environmental Protection Agency
11%
EPA
Environmental Protection Agency
11%
IRS
Internal Revenue Service
6%
▼ 0.2
IRS
Internal Revenue Service
6%
▼ 0.2
NASA
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
1%
NASA
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
1%
Market Rules
USAID
If USAID is eliminated before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Library of Congress and The New York Times.
Eliminating all funding also satisfies the Payout Criterion, as does merging its authorities with another agency, though merely altering its authorities without changing its name, or other alterations is not sufficient to be encompassed.
Timeline and payout
Market openFeb 6, 2025 · 10:00am EST
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXAGENCYELIM
EventKXAGENCYELIM-29
MarketKXAGENCYELIM-29-USAID
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