Who will leave California before 2027?
Who will leave California before 2027?
Chance
Market Rules
Peter Thiel
If Peter Thiel announces they're moving away from California before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from official representatives or spokespersons for person, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, CNBC, and verified social media accounts belonging to person.
The announcement must indicate an intent to change primary residence, not temporary travel or maintaining multiple residences.
Timeline and payout
Market openDec 29, 2025 · 10:00am EST
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXCALIFORNIALEAVE
EventKXCALIFORNIALEAVE-27
MarketKXCALIFORNIALEAVE-27-PTHI
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.