CA-05 primary: first place
CA-05 primary: first place
Chance
Tom McClintock
Republican
99%
Tom McClintock
Republican
99%
Dan Stroud
Democratic
<1%
Dan Stroud
Democratic
<1%
Michael Barkley
Democratic
<1%
Michael Barkley
Democratic
<1%
Michael Masuda
Democratic
<1%
Michael Masuda
Democratic
<1%
Market Rules
Tom McClintock
If Tom McClintock wins the the 2026 CA-05 primary, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from the California Secretary of State.
This market resolves to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary.
Timeline and payout
Market openApr 18, 2026 · 10:00am EDT
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXCAPRIMARY
EventKXCAPRIMARY-05FIRST26
MarketKXCAPRIMARY-05FIRST26-TMCC
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.
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- Holders of federal and statewide public office.
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- All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
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- Commissioners and staff of the Federal Election Commission.
- Senior staff (Schedule C and equivalent political appointees) of any federal agency with jurisdiction over election administration, election security, or election-related enforcement, including without limitation the Department of Justice (Public Integrity Section, Election Crimes Branch, and Civil Rights Division Voting Section) and the Department of Homeland Security (CISA).
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- State Secretaries of State (and equivalent chief election officials), members of state and local boards of elections, election directors, registrars, and senior staff of state and local election administration offices.
- Any person working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
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