What are the odds Republicans keep the House in 2026?

According to Kalshi prediction markets, traders are actively pricing the odds of Republicans keeping the House in 2026. See live odds above.

What are the 2026 midterm election predictions?

Kalshi's real-money markets give the most accurate forecast for the 2026 midterms. See live odds above.

Who is favored to win the 2026 Senate races?

Kalshi aggregates trader sentiment across all 2026 Senate races to produce real-time probability estimates. Browse live odds above.

What is a prediction market for elections?

A prediction market lets traders buy and sell contracts based on election outcomes, producing real-time probability estimates that reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd.

Elections

All Midterm Primary Election Markets

Primaries

HI-01 Democratic nominee?

LIVE

Jarrett Keohokalole

1.70x

Ed Case

1.97x

$75,887 vol4 markets

Governer

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

Byron Donalds

1.03x

James Fishback

46.8x

$20,653,843 vol9 markets

Primaries

Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?

Francesca Hong

1.06x

David Crowley

18.8x

$3,962,603 vol11 markets

Primaries

HI-01 Democratic nominee?

LIVE

Jarrett Keohokalole

1.73x

Ed Case

1.93x

$20,455 vol5 markets

Primaries

FL-25 Democratic nominee?

Jared Moskowitz

1.16x

Oliver Larkin

5.90x

$502,925 vol3 markets

Governor

Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent

At least 10%

1.55x

At least 15%

3.18x

$2,253,033 vol7 markets

Primaries

Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?

Mike Lindell

1.42x

Lisa Demuth

3.08x

$632,286 vol8 markets

Primaries

Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?

Peggy Flanagan

1.33x

Angie Craig

3.40x

$454,871 vol9 markets

Primaries

FL-22 Republican nominee?

Michael Carbonara

1.73x

David Burck

3.96x

$218,847 vol15 markets

Primaries

FL-10 Republican nominee?

Willie Montague

46.8x

Vibert White

31.2x

$107,641 vol3 markets

Primaries

FL-06 Republican nominee?

Randy Fine

1.03x

Aaron Baker

93.5x

$380,689 vol6 markets

Governor

Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place

Jay Collins

1.50x

James Fishback

2.89x

$225,332 vol5 markets

Primaries

FL-02 Republican nominee?

Austin Rogers

1.70x

Keith Gross

2.46x

$135,797 vol8 markets

Primaries

Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?

Michele Tafoya

1.03x

Adam Schwarze

23.4x

$129,070 vol9 markets

Primaries

Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

Ed Markey

1.23x

Seth Moulton

4.73x

$300,274 vol4 markets

Primaries

Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee?

Mike Mazzei

1.33x

Gentner Drummond

3.52x

$988,248 vol7 markets

Primaries

Florida Democratic Senate nominee?

Alexander Vindman

1.06x

Angie Nixon

10.4x

$70,483 vol8 markets

Primaries

Minnesota Democratic Governor nominee?

Amy Klobuchar

1.01x

Bill Gates Jr.

$500,496 vol10 markets

Primaries

FL-19 Republican nominee?

Jim Schwartzel

2.29x

Catalina Lauf

2.89x

$45,375 vol8 markets

Primaries

Connecticut Democratic Governor nominee?

Ned Lamont

1.01x

Josh Elliott

93.5x

$46,339 vol5 markets

Primaries

MN-02 Democratic nominee?

Matt Little

1.23x

Matt Klein

4.13x

$58,033 vol3 markets

Primaries

MA-01 Democratic nominee?

Richard Neal

1.28x

Jeromie Whalen

3.96x

$61,396 vol5 markets

Primaries

FL-09 Republican nominee?

Ben Butler

2.01x

Thomas Chalifoux

3.29x

$31,392 vol13 markets

Primaries

FL-14 Republican nominee?

Kevin Steele

1.38x

Mike Beltran

2.98x

$33,202 vol10 markets

Primaries

How many House Republicans will lose their primary this year?

1.60x

2.73x

$275,541 vol8 markets

Primaries

WI-05 Democratic nominee?

Andrew Beck

Ben Steinhoff

46.8x

$7,461 vol2 markets

Primaries

CT-01 Democratic nominee?

Luke Bronin

1.18x

John Larson

5.25x

$25,177 vol6 markets

Senate

Michigan Senate Democratic primary: 2nd place

Haley Stevens

Abdul El-Sayed

93.5x

$307,349 vol3 markets

Primaries

AL-01 Republican nominee?

Jerry Carl

1.01x

Austin Sidwell

93.5x

$50,494 vol7 markets

Primaries

HI-01 Republican nominee?

LIVE

Adriel Lam

Maxwell Frazier

93.5x

$15,012 vol2 markets

Primaries

Michigan Senate Democratic primary: voter turnout

Above 1.6M

18.8x

Above 1.5M

$82,204 vol8 markets

Primaries

Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?

Dave Bronson

2.09x

Click Bishop

2.59x

$116,144 vol16 markets

Primaries

WI-06 Democratic nominee?

Brad Smith

1.12x

Amanda Bell

6.29x

$32,384 vol8 markets

Primaries

Democratic Senate primaries: progressives sweep?

Yes

1.38x

2.73x

$68,512 vol1 market

Primaries

Wyoming Republican Governor nominee?

Eric Barlow

1.52x

Megan Degenfelder

2.81x

$92,677 vol5 markets

Primaries

WI-07 Republican nominee?

Michael Alfonso

1.06x

Kevin Hermening

11.7x

$8,358 vol5 markets

Primaries

WI-08 Democratic nominee?

Rick Crosson

1.31x

Katrina DeVille

6.29x

$6,039 vol4 markets

Primaries

LA-01 Republican nominee?

Steve Scalise

11.7x

Randall Arrington

31.2x

$134,429 vol2 markets

Primaries

FL-16 Republican nominee?

Sydney Gruters

1.03x

Ed Pope

46.8x

$202,404 vol14 markets

Primaries

LA-04 Republican nominee?

Mike Johnson

10.4x

Mike Nichols

46.8x

$39,596 vol3 markets

Primaries

FL-02 Democratic nominee?

Yen Bailey

2.59x

Amanda Green

3.18x

$23,636 vol5 markets

Primaries

FL-20 Democratic nominee?

Debbie Wasserman Schultz

1.25x

Elijah Manley

4.13x

$85,195 vol7 markets

Primaries

WI-07 Democratic nominee?

Fred Clark

1.03x

Ginger Murray

18.8x

$4,473 vol3 markets

Primaries

New Hampshire Republican Senate nominee?

John E. Sununu

1.03x

Scott Brown

18.8x

$56,188 vol4 markets

Primaries

FL-25 Republican nominee?

Scott Singer

1.48x

Dan Franzese

4.73x

$24,571 vol5 markets

Primaries

Florida Democratic Governor nominee?

David Jolly

1.02x

Daniella Levine Cava

93.5x

$31,247 vol9 markets

Primaries

FL-23 Democratic nominee?

Lois Frankel

1.04x

Victoria Doyle

13.4x

$94,623 vol4 markets

Primaries

Vermont Democratic Governor nominee?

Aly Richards

1.34x

Amanda Janoo

3.18x

$37,267 vol9 markets

Primaries

FL-24 Democratic nominee?

Shevrin Jones

1.29x

Oliver Gilbert

3.96x

$82,788 vol4 markets

Primaries

Florida Republican Senate nominee?

Ashley Moody

1.01x

Jay Collins

93.5x

$110,443 vol10 markets