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2026 Primary & Midterm Election Odds & Predictions | Kalshi
All markets
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US Elections
2026 Primaries
All Midterm Primary Election Markets
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Governor
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Downballot
Cross-State
Politics
Illinois Democratic Senate nominee?
LIVE
61.1% of vote counted
Juliana Stratton
39.3
% ·
370,501
votes
--
99
%
Dick Durbin
93.5
x
1
%
$1,397,191 vol
14 markets
Elections
IL-09 Democratic nominee?
LIVE
73.6% of vote counted
Daniel Biss
29.9
% ·
30,180
votes
--
99
%
Jan Schakowsky
93.5
x
1
%
$1,079,896 vol
11 markets
Politics
Illinois Republican Senate nominee?
LIVE
Don Tracy
--
99
%
Casey Chlebek
93.5
x
1
%
$133,926 vol
7 markets
Elections
IL-02 Democratic nominee?
LIVE
74.5% of vote counted
Donna Miller
40.6
% ·
28,972
votes
--
99
%
Toni Brown
1.1
% ·
811
votes
93.5
x
1
%
$86,297 vol
10 markets
Elections
IL-08 Democratic nominee?
LIVE
65.9% of vote counted
Melissa Bean
32.1
% ·
19,796
votes
--
99
%
Yasmeen Bankole
9.4
% ·
5,818
votes
93.5
x
3
%
$88,403 vol
8 markets
Politics
Illinois Republican Governor nominee?
LIVE
Darren Bailey
--
99
%
Ted Dabrowski
93.5
x
1
%
$96,142 vol
5 markets
Elections
Illinois Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?
LIVE
Stratton, 3-6%
1.36
x
68
%
Stratton, 6-9%
2.46
x
38
%
$92,860 vol
13 markets
Elections
IL-07 Democratic nominee?
LIVE
90.1% of vote counted
La Shawn Ford
23.6
% ·
20,309
votes
1.01
x
98
%
Richard Boykin
4.1
% ·
3,537
votes
93.5
x
1
%
$64,997 vol
13 markets
Politics
Illinois Democratic Comptroller nominee?
LIVE
Margaret Croke
1.03
x
80
%
Karina Villa
10.4
x
4
%
$27,330 vol
4 markets
Elections
IL-09 Democratic primary margin of victory?
LIVE
Daniel Biss, 4-8%
1.22
x
72
%
Daniel Biss, 0-4%
1.05
x
21
%
$16,206 vol
9 markets
Elections
IL-13 Democratic nominee?
LIVE
Nikki Budzinski
--
99
%
Dylan Blaha
93.5
x
4
%
$7,619 vol
3 markets
Elections
IL-09 Republican nominee?
LIVE
John Elleson
--
98
%
Paul Friedman
93.5
x
1
%
$6,206 vol
4 markets
Elections
IL-13 Republican nominee?
LIVE
Jeff Wilson
--
95
%
Joshua Loyd
4.73
x
4
%
$4,341 vol
2 markets
Elections
IL-07 Republican nominee?
LIVE
Chad Koppie
--
99
%
Patricia Easley
93.5
x
42
%
$5,650 vol
2 markets
Elections
IL-08 Republican nominee?
LIVE
Jennifer Davis
--
97
%
Kevin Ake
93.5
x
2
%
$4,934 vol
4 markets
Elections
IL-14 Republican nominee?
LIVE
James Marter
1.02
x
96
%
Gary Vician
1.12
x
4
%
$5,027 vol
2 markets
Elections
IL-10 Democratic nominee?
LIVE
Brad Schneider
--
99
%
Morgan Coghill
93.5
x
3
%
$4,011 vol
2 markets
Elections
IL-17 Republican nominee?
LIVE
Dillan Vancil
--
99
%
Julie Bickelhaupt
1.19
x
2
%
$3,795 vol
2 markets
Elections
IL-02 Republican nominee?
LIVE
Michael Noack
--
99
%
Ashley Ramos
93.5
x
1
%
$4,868 vol
2 markets
Elections
IL-01 Republican nominee?
LIVE
Christian Maxwell
--
99
%
Marcus Lewis
1.08
x
1
%
$3,243 vol
2 markets
Elections
IL-15 Democratic nominee?
LIVE
Jennifer Todd
1.10
x
92
%
Paul Davis
1.04
x
45
%
$3,220 vol
4 markets
Elections
IL-11 Republican nominee?
LIVE
Jeff Walter
--
95
%
Tedora Brown
93.5
x
1
%
$3,065 vol
4 markets
Elections
IL-05 Democratic nominee?
LIVE
Mike Quigley
--
97
%
Matt Conroy
93.5
x
1
%
$1,976 vol
4 markets
Elections
IL-15 Republican nominee?
LIVE
Mary Miller
--
99
%
Ryan Tebrugge
46.8
x
3
%
$1,302 vol
3 markets
Elections
IL-06 Democratic nominee?
LIVE
Sean Casten
--
99
%
Joey Ruzevich
93.5
x
1
%
$1,736 vol
2 markets
Elections
IL-06 Republican nominee?
LIVE
Niki Conforti
--
96
%
Skylar Duensing
93.5
x
4
%
$1,612 vol
2 markets
Elections
IL-03 Republican nominee?
LIVE
Angel Oakley
--
99
%
Spomenka Vajic
93.5
x
1
%
$1,212 vol
2 markets
Elections
IL-05 Republican nominee?
LIVE
Tommy Hanson
--
97
%
Kimball Ladien
93.5
x
3
%
$859 vol
3 markets
Elections
IL-16 Republican nominee?
LIVE
Darin LaHood
--
99
%
John Kitover
93.5
x
2
%
$457 vol
2 markets
Elections
IL-03 Democratic nominee?
LIVE
Delia Ramirez
--
99
%
Mark Pasieka
93.5
x
1
%
$380 vol
2 markets
Elections
IL-17 Democratic nominee?
LIVE
Eric Sorensen
--
99
%
Montez Soliz
93.5
x
1
%
$263 vol
2 markets
Politics
Texas Republican Senate nominee?
John Cornyn
1.62
x
57
%
Ken Paxton
2.34
x
41
%
$10,715,340 vol
5 markets
Elections
Texas Senate Democratic primary margin of victory?
Talarico, 6-9%
1.02
x
97
%
Talarico, 3-6%
46.8
x
3
%
$5,429,715 vol
11 markets
Elections
Texas Senate Democratic primary turnout?
Above 2,400,000
93.5
x
1
%
Above 2,500,000
93.5
x
1
%
$4,170,766 vol
22 markets
Politics
Texas Senate matchup?
Talarico vs. Cornyn
1.60
x
61
%
Talarico vs. Paxton
2.46
x
38
%
$2,624,553 vol
6 markets
Politics
Texas Senate primary: which counties will Talarico win?
Dallas
93.5
x
1
%
Tarrant
93.5
x
1
%
$678,067 vol
7 markets
Elections
Texas Senate Republican primary turnout?
Above 2,200,000
46.8
x
2
%
Above 2,300,000
93.5
x
1
%
$459,909 vol
10 markets
Politics
Texas Senate primary: Democrats have higher turnout than Republicans?
Yes
--
99
%
No
93.5
x
1
%
$454,835 vol
1 market
Elections
Texas Senate Republican primary margin of victory?
Paxton, 0-3%
46.8
x
1
%
Paxton, 3-6%
46.8
x
1
%
$383,362 vol
9 markets
Elections
2nd place in first round of Texas Senate Republican primary?
Ken Paxton
--
99
%
John Cornyn
93.5
x
1
%
$263,635 vol
3 markets
Elections
Larger margin of victory: Texas Senate Dem or GOP primary?
Democratic primary
--
99
%
Republican primary
93.5
x
1
%
$217,296 vol
2 markets
Elections
TX-33 Democratic nominee?
Colin Allred
1.22
x
80
%
Julie Johnson
4.31
x
20
%
$205,552 vol
3 markets
Politics
How many House Republicans will lose their primary this year?
LIVE
7 or more
1.97
x
49
%
5
3.08
x
31
%
$139,497 vol
8 markets
Politics
Texas Republican Attorney General nominee?
Mayes Middleton
1.44
x
74
%
Chip Roy
2.66
x
31
%
$104,215 vol
4 markets
Politics
Democratic Senate primaries combo
LIVE
Yes
3.40
x
27
%
No
1.34
x
73
%
$89,982 vol
1 market
Elections
Texas GOP Governor primary: Greg Abbott vote percent?
90% or more
93.5
x
1
%
95% or more
93.5
x
1
%
$95,433 vol
6 markets
Elections
MS-02 Republican nominee?
Ron Eller
1.01
x
98
%
Kevin Wilson
31.2
x
1
%
$68,740 vol
2 markets
Elections
3rd place in first round of Texas Senate Republican primary?
Wesley Hunt
--
99
%
John Cornyn
93.5
x
1
%
$82,114 vol
3 markets
Elections
TX-18 Democratic nominee?
Christian Menefee
1.15
x
80
%
Al Green
4.51
x
21
%
$64,673 vol
4 markets
Politics
How many House Democrats will lose their primary this year?
LIVE
7 or more
4.73
x
20
%
3
6.29
x
16
%
$44,328 vol
8 markets