SOFR at end of Q2 2026
SOFR at end of Q2 2026
Begins in 20 days · Jul 1, 6:00am EDT
Chance
Above 3.75%
16%
Above 3.75%
16%
Above 4.25%
2%
Above 4.25%
2%
Above 5.00%
--%
Above 5.00%
--%
Market Rules
Above 3.75%
If the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business-day SOFR reference date for Q2 2026 is above 3.75%, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: this event is directional.
Timeline and payout
Market openApr 1, 2026 · 10:00am EDT
Market closesJul 1, 2026 · 7:55am EDT
Projected payoutJul 2, 2026 · 8:55am EDT
SeriesKXCREDITC
EventKXCREDITC-26JUL01
MarketKXCREDITC-26JUL01-T3.75
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
About
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a broad measure of overnight borrowing costs in the U.S. Treasury repo market, published each U.S. business day by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (around 8:00 a.m. ET). In recent months, attention on SOFR and repo rates has been driven less by “mystery spikes” and more by tightening system liquidity and recurring month-/quarter-end funding pressures. Late in 2025, usage of the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF), a backstop meant to cap stress in repo funding, reached record or near-record levels around month-end and year-end, reflecting elevated demand for secured financing when balance-sheet constraints bite. These dynamics have occurred alongside the Fed’s shift away from balance-sheet runoff as signs emerged that reserves were becoming less abundant, making short-term rates more sensitive to collateral supply/demand and funding frictions.