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Series Image
  1. GDP

US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?

4
Begins in 21h 47m 21s · Oct 30, 8:00am EDT
Chance
Above 0.0%
99%

Above 0.0%

99%
Above 0.5%
99%

Above 0.5%

99%
Above 1.0%
99%

Above 1.0%

99%
6 more
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US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?

Above 0.0%

Odds
0% chance
Max payout
Oct 30, 2026
$0
Loading the GDP outlook.
$373,342 volSolid: realized annual growth (BEA). Dashed: market-implied, quarterly (KXGDP) near term, annual (KXGDPYEAR) beyond. For reference.
Scenarios load with the GDP forward curve.
$373,342 volDebt rolled from CBO's Dec 2025 level (~$30.2T, pub 62105 Table 1-3): CBO's primary-deficit share of GDP (Table 1-2, interest-free) plus interest that reprices ~17% of the stock a year toward the fed funds market, over nominal GDP built from the KXGDPYEAR growth markets and the CPI inflation markets. Each line shifts the primary-deficit share; 0 = CBO. For reference.
$373,341 vol