Important information: If Ali Khamenei dies, the market will resolve upon the confirmed reporting of the death, based on the last traded price prior to death. If that price is unclear, the Outcome Review Committee will determine a fair market value. (Please note: A prior version of this clarification was grammatically ambiguous. As a customer service measure, Kalshi will reimburse lost value due to trades made between these clarifications).
This market has been paused according to Kalshi Rule 13.1 pending further review of the situation.
Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?
Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?
No
No
2%
2%
29%
29%
Market Rules
An announcement that the Ali Khamenei will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Ali Khamenei leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event