Important information: Louisiana's 2026 U.S. House elections have reverted from closed party primaries to an open "jungle" primary system. Under this system, all candidates appear on a single ballot regardless of party, and the state-administered election does not produce a formal party nominee. A candidate's party affiliation on the ballot is an informational designation, not a nomination, and party endorsements do not constitute nominations for purposes of this event.
If Louisiana law is amended to restore a formal nomination process for U.S. House races, or if the relevant state party formally designates a nominee for a given seat, the corresponding market will resolve accordingly. Otherwise, all markets in this event will resolve to “No”.
LA-02 Democratic nominee?
LA-02 Democratic nominee?
Chance
Troy Carter
2%
Troy Carter
2%
Renada Collins
1.6%
Renada Collins
1.6%
Market Rules
Troy Carter
If Troy Carter wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 LA-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Democratic Party and Republican Party.
Note: this event is mutually exclusive.
Timeline and payout
Market openFeb 26, 2026 · 10:00am EST
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXLAPRIMARY
EventKXLAPRIMARY-02D26
MarketKXLAPRIMARY-02D26-TCAR
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.
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- Holders of federal and statewide public office.
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- All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members.
- All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
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- Commissioners and staff of the Federal Election Commission.
- Senior staff (Schedule C and equivalent political appointees) of any federal agency with jurisdiction over election administration, election security, or election-related enforcement, including without limitation the Department of Justice (Public Integrity Section, Election Crimes Branch, and Civil Rights Division Voting Section) and the Department of Homeland Security (CISA).
- All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices.
- Federal and state judges presiding over active litigation related to any race listed within this event.
- All Electors who may cast ballots in connection with the determination of the President and/or Vice President of the United States.
- State Secretaries of State (and equivalent chief election officials), members of state and local boards of elections, election directors, registrars, and senior staff of state and local election administration offices.
- Any person working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
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- Employees of Decision Desks at major media organizations, including but not limited to Fox News, ABC News, the Associated Press, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ, NBC News, The New York Times, and Reuters.
- Employees of exit-polling and election-night survey operations engaged by media organizations or campaigns in any race listed within this event, including but not limited to Edison Research and the National Election Pool.
