Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess in 2025?

$106,638 vol

Order book

No

The outcome is No

If any of the Source Agencies report that an LLM has beat a chess grandmaster in chess before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, the Associated Press, and Reuters.

Timeline and payout

Market openMar 19, 2025 · 10:00am EDT

Market closedAfter the outcome occurs

Paid out30 minutes after closing

This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Jan 1, 2026 at 10:00am EST.

SeriesKXLLMCHESS

EventKXLLMCHESS-26

MarketKXLLMCHESS-26

Insider trading is prohibited

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

Chess Grandmasters:
Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.