When will the next US recession start?
When will the next US recession start?
Begins in 198 days · Dec 31, 10:00am EST
Chance
Q3 2025
1.6%
Q3 2025
1.6%
Q4 2025
2%
▼ 1
Q4 2025
2%
▼ 1
Q1 2026
3.3%
Q1 2026
3.3%
3 more
Important information: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights - see additional details.
Market Rules
Q4 2024
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q4 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from NBER.
Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight). For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).
Timeline and payout
Market openMar 19, 2025 · 10:00am EDT
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXNBERRECESSQ
EventKXNBERRECESSQ
MarketKXNBERRECESSQ-Q4-2024
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.