How many non-SpaceX US commercial space launches will there be in 2025?

At least 15

Yes

At least 15

At least 30

At least 30

At least 45

At least 45

At least 15

The outcome is Yes

Resolves Yes if there are at least 15 non-SpaceX commercial space launches before 2025.Outcome verified from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, and FAA.

Timeline and payout

Market openMay 24, 2025 · 10:00am EDT

Market closedAfter the outcome occurs

Paid out30 minutes after closing

This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Nov 28, 2025 at 3:32pm EST.

SeriesKXOTHERLAUNCH

EventKXOTHERLAUNCH-26

MarketKXOTHERLAUNCH-26-15

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