How many people will Trump pardon this year?
How many people will Trump pardon this year?
Chance
50 to 99
12%
50 to 99
12%
100 to 499
70%
100 to 499
70%
500 to 999
21%
500 to 999
21%
7 more
Market Rules
25 to 49
If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 25 and 49 persons after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from White House, The New York Times, and Department of Justice.
Note: this event is mutually exclusive.
Timeline and payout
Market openJan 9, 2026 · 10:00am EST
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXPARDONSYEAR
EventKXPARDONSYEAR-26DEC
MarketKXPARDONSYEAR-26DEC-37
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
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