Iowa Republican Governor primary margin of victory?

Iowa Republican Governor primary margin of victory?

$38,188 vol

ALL

Chance

Randy Feenstra, ≥20%

<1%

Randy Feenstra, ≥20%

<1%

Zach Lahn, 0-5%

99%

Zach Lahn, 0-5%

99%

Zach Lahn, 5-10%

<1%

Zach Lahn, 5-10%

<1%

6 more

Important information: Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.

Market Rules

Randy Feenstra, 0-5%

Resolves Yes if the margin of victory for Randy Feenstra in the 2026 Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.Outcome verified from Iowa Secretary of State.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Randy Feenstra minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Randy Feenstra if Randy Feenstra wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Randy Feenstra loses.
For raw votes: the total votes received by Randy Feenstra minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Randy Feenstra if Randy Feenstra wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Randy Feenstra loses.
For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Randy Feenstra minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Randy Feenstra wins, or the electoral votes received by Randy Feenstra minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Randy Feenstra does not.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Randy Feenstra runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Randy Feenstra will be summed.

If Randy Feenstra wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Randy Feenstra loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Randy Feenstra ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Randy Feenstra is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Note: this event is mutually exclusive.

Timeline and payout

Market openJun 1, 2026 · 11:30am EDT

Market closesAfter the outcome occurs

Projected payout30 minutes after closing

This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published. Otherwise, it closes by Jun 2, 2027 at 10:00am EDT.

SeriesKXPRIMARYMOV

EventKXPRIMARYMOV-KXGOVIANOMR26

MarketKXPRIMARYMOV-KXGOVIANOMR26-RFEE-P2

Insider trading is prohibited

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Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
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Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event

Randy Feenstra, 0-5%

Dollars

Odds

0% chance

Max payout

$0

Primary Elections

United States 2026

Primary Elections

United States 2026