What are the odds Republicans keep the House in 2026?

According to Kalshi prediction markets, traders are actively pricing the odds of Republicans keeping the House in 2026. See live odds above.

What are the 2026 midterm election predictions?

Kalshi's real-money markets give the most accurate forecast for the 2026 midterms. See live odds above.

Who is favored to win the 2026 Senate races?

Kalshi aggregates trader sentiment across all 2026 Senate races to produce real-time probability estimates. Browse live odds above.

What is a prediction market for elections?

A prediction market lets traders buy and sell contracts based on election outcomes, producing real-time probability estimates that reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd.

Elections

All Midterm Primary Election Markets

Governer

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

Byron Donalds

1.02x

James Fishback

93.5x

$22,281,737 vol9 markets

Governor

Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent

At least 10%

1.67x

At least 15%

3.80x

$2,670,792 vol7 markets

Primaries

Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?

Francesca Hong

1.05x

David Crowley

23.4x

$4,239,416 vol11 markets

Primaries

Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?

Lisa Demuth

1.55x

Mike Lindell

2.59x

$766,338 vol8 markets

Primaries

Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?

Peggy Flanagan

1.34x

Angie Craig

3.40x

$518,132 vol9 markets

Primaries

FL-25 Democratic nominee?

Jared Moskowitz

1.12x

Oliver Larkin

7.85x

$558,874 vol3 markets

Primaries

FL-06 Republican nominee?

Randy Fine

1.02x

Alexandra van Cleef

93.5x

$403,792 vol6 markets

Governor

Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place

Jay Collins

1.25x

James Fishback

4.73x

$242,181 vol5 markets

Primaries

Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?

Michele Tafoya

1.02x

Royce White

46.8x

$143,157 vol9 markets

Primaries

FL-19 Republican nominee?

Jim Schwartzel

2.29x

Catalina Lauf

2.59x

$56,831 vol8 markets

Primaries

FL-20 Democratic nominee?

Debbie Wasserman Schultz

1.12x

Elijah Manley

7.25x

$105,084 vol7 markets

Primaries

WI-04 Democratic nominee?

Gwen Moore

1.01x

Amy Donahue

46.8x

$11,447 vol3 markets

Primaries

Minnesota Democratic Governor nominee?

Amy Klobuchar

1.01x

Bill Gates Jr.

$507,264 vol10 markets

Primaries

AK-AL primary: Who will advance?

Matthew Schultz

1.76x

John Brendan Williams

1.52x

$14,617 vol5 markets

Primaries

Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee?

Mike Mazzei

1.31x

Gentner Drummond

3.52x

$991,106 vol7 markets

Primaries

Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?

Dave Bronson

1.86x

Click Bishop

2.81x

$121,519 vol16 markets

Primaries

Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

Ed Markey

1.20x

Seth Moulton

4.98x

$313,659 vol4 markets

Primaries

MN-02 Democratic nominee?

Matt Little

1.36x

Matt Klein

3.29x

$64,363 vol3 markets

Primaries

How many House Republicans will lose their primary this year?

1.90x

2.29x

$278,154 vol8 markets

Primaries

FL-02 Republican nominee?

Austin Rogers

1.55x

Keith Gross

2.98x

$146,096 vol8 markets

Primaries

Wisconsin Republican Governor nominee?

Tom Tiffany

1.01x

Andy Manske

93.5x

$36,218 vol8 markets

Primaries

WI-06 Democratic nominee?

Brad Smith

1.10x

Amanda Bell

8.56x

$35,828 vol8 markets

Primaries

Connecticut Democratic Governor nominee?

Ned Lamont

1.01x

Josh Elliott

93.5x

$52,559 vol5 markets

Primaries

MA-01 Democratic nominee?

Richard Neal

1.15x

Jeromie Whalen

6.29x

$64,937 vol5 markets

Primaries

Vermont Democratic Governor nominee?

Aly Richards

1.46x

Amanda Janoo

2.73x

$39,523 vol9 markets

Primaries

FL-22 Republican nominee?

Michael Carbonara

1.70x

David Burck

3.66x

$220,948 vol15 markets

Senate

Michigan Senate Democratic primary: 2nd place

Haley Stevens

Abdul El-Sayed

93.5x

$307,781 vol3 markets

Primaries

FL-24 Democratic nominee?

Shevrin Jones

1.26x

Oliver Gilbert

4.31x

$84,171 vol4 markets

Primaries

FL-13 Democratic nominee?

Leela Gray

1.04x

Earle Ford

93.5x

$72,509 vol10 markets

Primaries

FL-11 Republican nominee?

Joe Strada

1.50x

Carey Baker

3.52x

$59,969 vol12 markets

Primaries

Florida Democratic Senate nominee?

Alexander Vindman

1.07x

Angie Nixon

13.4x

$73,001 vol8 markets

Primaries

CT-01 Democratic nominee?

Luke Bronin

1.16x

John Larson

5.25x

$28,979 vol6 markets

Primaries

WI-06 Republican nominee?

Glenn Grothman

Jonathan Peetz

93.5x

$17,109 vol2 markets

Primaries

FL-16 Republican nominee?

Sydney Gruters

1.03x

Ed Pope

46.8x

$202,432 vol14 markets

Primaries

FL-23 Republican nominee?

Deborah Adeimy

1.10x

Paola Branda

13.4x

$69,172 vol7 markets

Primaries

Wyoming Republican Governor nominee?

Eric Barlow

1.44x

Megan Degenfelder

2.89x

$93,410 vol5 markets

Primaries

Vermont Republican Governor nominee?

Phil Scott

Joe Benning

93.5x

$52,069 vol5 markets

Primaries

How many House Democrats will lose their primary this year?

7 or more

1.10x

8.56x

$99,809 vol8 markets

Primaries

FL-14 Republican nominee?

Kevin Steele

1.34x

Mike Beltran

3.66x

$33,963 vol10 markets

Primaries

MA-06 Democratic nominee?

Dan Koh

1.28x

Tram Nguyen

4.73x

$36,527 vol9 markets

Primaries

LA-01 Republican nominee?

Steve Scalise

11.7x

Randall Arrington

31.2x

$134,429 vol2 markets

Primaries

FL-02 Democratic nominee?

Yen Bailey

2.59x

Amanda Green

3.08x

$24,260 vol5 markets

Primaries

Florida Republican Senate nominee?

Ashley Moody

1.01x

Jay Collins

93.5x

$110,681 vol10 markets

Primaries

FL-10 Republican nominee?

Vibert White

31.2x

Willie Montague

31.2x

$110,179 vol3 markets

Primaries

MN-05 Democratic nominee?

Ilhan Omar

Julie Le

46.8x

$29,507 vol3 markets

Primaries

WI-07 Republican nominee?

Michael Alfonso

1.06x

Kevin Hermening

11.7x

$9,569 vol5 markets

Primaries

FL-23 Democratic nominee?

Lois Frankel

1.04x

Victoria Doyle

13.4x

$94,626 vol4 markets

Primaries

Michigan Senate Democratic primary: voter turnout

Above 1.6M

15.6x

Above 1.0M

$83,423 vol8 markets

Primaries

WY-AL Republican nominee?

Steve Friess

1.70x

Chuck Gray

2.46x

$15,272 vol9 markets

Primaries

FL-07 Republican nominee?

Ryan Elijah

1.70x

Cory Mills

2.14x

$28,343 vol4 markets