PA-03 Democratic primary: margin of victory

PA-03 Democratic primary: margin of victory

$40,342 vol

ALL

Chance

Chris Rabb, 15-20%

99%

Chris Rabb, 15-20%

99%

Chris Rabb, 5-10%

<1%

Chris Rabb, 5-10%

<1%

Sharif Street, 10-15%

<1%

Sharif Street, 10-15%

<1%

10 more

Important information: Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.

Market Rules

Chris Rabb, 15-20%

If the margin of victory for Chris Rabb in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary falls within 15% to 20%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Pennsylvania Department of State.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Chris Rabb minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Chris Rabb if Chris Rabb wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Chris Rabb loses.
For raw votes: the total votes received by Chris Rabb minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Chris Rabb if Chris Rabb wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Chris Rabb loses.
For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Chris Rabb minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Chris Rabb wins, or the electoral votes received by Chris Rabb minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Chris Rabb does not.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Chris Rabb runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Chris Rabb will be summed.

If Chris Rabb wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Chris Rabb loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Chris Rabb ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Chris Rabb is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Note: this event is mutually exclusive.

Timeline and payout

Market openMay 18, 2026 · 12:30pm EDT

Market closesAfter the outcome occurs

Projected payout30 minutes after closing

This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published. Otherwise, it closes by May 19, 2027 at 10:00am EDT.

SeriesKXPRIMARYMOV

EventKXPRIMARYMOV-PA3D26

MarketKXPRIMARYMOV-PA3D26-CRAB-P17

Insider trading is prohibited

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event

Primary Elections

United States 2026

Primary Elections

United States 2026