South Carolina Republican Senate primary margin of victory?

South Carolina Republican Senate primary margin of victory?

$62,588 vol

ALL

Chance

Lindsey Graham, 20-25%

1%

▼ 13

Lindsey Graham, 20-25%

1%

▼ 13

Lindsey Graham, 25-30%

98%

▲ 83

Lindsey Graham, 25-30%

98%

▲ 83

Lindsey Graham, 30-35%

1%

▼ 14

Lindsey Graham, 30-35%

1%

▼ 14

4 more

Important information: Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.

Market Rules

Lindsey Graham, 0-15%

If the margin of victory for Lindsey Graham in the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate primary falls within 0% to 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from South Carolina Secretary of State.

The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Lindsey Graham minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lindsey Graham if Lindsey Graham wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Lindsey Graham loses.
For raw votes: the total votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lindsey Graham if Lindsey Graham wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Lindsey Graham loses.
For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Lindsey Graham wins, or the electoral votes received by Lindsey Graham minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Lindsey Graham does not.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Lindsey Graham runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Lindsey Graham will be summed.

If Lindsey Graham wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Lindsey Graham loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Lindsey Graham ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Lindsey Graham is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

Note: this event is mutually exclusive.

Timeline and payout

Market openJun 8, 2026 · 1:00pm EDT

Market closesAfter the outcome occurs

Projected payout30 minutes after closing

This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published. Otherwise, it closes by Jun 9, 2027 at 10:00am EDT.

SeriesKXPRIMARYMOV

EventKXPRIMARYMOV-SENATESCR262R

MarketKXPRIMARYMOV-SENATESCR262R-LGRA-P7

Insider trading is prohibited

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event

Primary Elections

United States 2026

Primary Elections

United States 2026