Number of rate cuts in 2024?
Number of rate cuts in 2024?
3 cuts
75bps
No
3 cuts
75bps
No
4 cuts
100bps
Yes
4 cuts
100bps
Yes
5 cuts
125bps
No
5 cuts
125bps
No
12 more
Market Rules
0 cuts
If the Fed does exactly 0 cuts of 25 basis points in 2024, the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Federal Reserve.
To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on). Note: the original filing had a typographical error that referred to a 25bp cut as an "increase" in the federal funds rate. This has been changed.
Timeline and payout
Market openDec 14, 2023 · 4:45pm EST
Market closedDec 31, 2024 · 11:59pm EST
Paid outJan 1, 2025 · 12:59am EST
SeriesKXRATECUTCOUNT
EventRATECUTCOUNT-24DEC31
MarketRATECUTCOUNT-24DEC31-T0
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
About
After two years of multiple interest rate hikes by the FOMC, December's 2023 meeting implied that there may be a reversal going into 2024. Along with the decision to stay on hold, committee members penciled in at least three rate cuts in 2024, assuming quarter percentage point increments. That's less than what the market had been pricing, but more aggressive than what officials had previously indicated. The central bank's post-meeting statement noted that 'inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated,' which is a change from the usual sentence simply stating that 'inflation remains elevated.'