Recession in 2025?
Recession in 2025?
$4,780,801 vol
Market Rules
The outcome is No
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2024 or 2025, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2025 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2025 Q4 GDP.
Timeline and payout
Market openAug 5, 2024 · 8:00am EDT
Market closedAfter the outcome occurs
Paid out1 hour after closing
SeriesKXRECSSNBER
EventRECSSNBER-25
MarketRECSSNBER-25
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
About
A recession is an economic downturn characterized by two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, or negative GDP. Recessions can lead to job losses, reduced consumer confidence, and financial challenges for businesses. Fun fact: The word 'recession' has been used to describe economic setbacks since the 19th century, but the modern concept of recessions as we understand them today emerged during the Great Depression of the 1930s.