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Series Image
  1. AI

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?

Chance
Before Jan 1, 2027

13%

▼ 5
Before Jan 1, 2027

13%

▼ 5
Before Jan 1, 2028

57%

Before Jan 1, 2028

57%

Before Jan 1, 2029

75%

Before Jan 1, 2029

75%

Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?

Before Jan 1, 2027

Odds
18% chance
Max payout
Dec 31, 2026

$0

$1,715 vol