Who will run for public office this year?
Who will run for public office this year?
Chance
Matt Gaetz
10%
▼ 1
Matt Gaetz
10%
▼ 1
Mark Cuban
5.9%
Mark Cuban
5.9%
Casey DeSantis
5.2%
▼ 7.8
Casey DeSantis
5.2%
▼ 7.8
11 more
Market Rules
Joe Kent
If Joe Kent has announced they will run for an elected public office in the 2026 election after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, and person.
The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.
Timeline and payout
Market openMar 17, 2026 · 3:00pm EDT
Market closesAfter the outcome occurs
Projected payout30 minutes after closing
SeriesKXRUNBYMIDTERM
EventKXRUNBYMIDTERM-26NOV03
MarketKXRUNBYMIDTERM-26NOV03-JKEN
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.
- Immediate family members (spouses and dependents) of any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.
- Paid staffers on any campaign listed within this event.
- Third-party vendors, contractors, consultants, and outside counsel (and employees thereof) engaged by any campaign listed within this event.
- Paid employees of national, state, or congressional party organizations (including, e.g., the DNC, RNC, DCCC, NRCC, DSCC, and NRSC).
- Paid employees of Political Action Committees (PACs) and independent-expenditure-only political committees ("Super PACs") active in any race listed within this event.
- Registered federal lobbyists retained by any campaign, party organization, or PAC active in any race listed within this event.
- Holders of federal and statewide public office.
- State legislators serving on committees with jurisdiction over election administration in any state with a race listed within this event.
- All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members.
- All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
- All staff of the Executive Office of the President, including the Office of the President and the Office of the Vice President.
- Commissioners and staff of the Federal Election Commission.
- Senior staff (Schedule C and equivalent political appointees) of any federal agency with jurisdiction over election administration, election security, or election-related enforcement, including without limitation the Department of Justice (Public Integrity Section, Election Crimes Branch, and Civil Rights Division Voting Section) and the Department of Homeland Security (CISA).
- All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices.
- Federal and state judges presiding over active litigation related to any race listed within this event.
- All Electors who may cast ballots in connection with the determination of the President and/or Vice President of the United States.
- State Secretaries of State (and equivalent chief election officials), members of state and local boards of elections, election directors, registrars, and senior staff of state and local election administration offices.
- Any person working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
- Paid employees of major polling organizations. The Exchange shall maintain and publish a list of polling organizations it has designated as "major" and may modify that list at any time. This prohibition does not apply to all employees of an organization that contains a polling division (e.g., the prohibition does not apply to all employees of Quinnipiac University despite the presence of Quinnipiac University's polling division).
- Employees of Decision Desks at major media organizations, including but not limited to Fox News, ABC News, the Associated Press, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ, NBC News, The New York Times, and Reuters.
- Employees of exit-polling and election-night survey operations engaged by media organizations or campaigns in any race listed within this event, including but not limited to Edison Research and the National Election Pool.