Will the Sahm Rule trigger this year?

Will the Sahm Rule trigger this year?

Begins in 239 days · Jan 8, 8:00am EST

$1,076 vol

Chance

Market Rules

Yes

If the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for any monthly observation from Issuance through December 2026 is At least 0.50ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.

The Underlying is the first published value for the applicable monthly observation in FRED series SAHMREALTIME. Revisions to previously published values will not be considered. The market does not depend on whether the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession. A value exactly equal to 0.50 qualifies.

Timeline and payout

Market openMay 11, 2026 · 8:00pm EDT

Market closesAfter the outcome occurs

Projected payout30 minutes after closing

The market will close early if FRED series SAHMREALTIME publishes a value greater than or equal to 0.50 percentage points for any 2026 monthly observation. Otherwise, it closes by Jan 8, 2027 at 8:29am EST.

SeriesKXSAHM

EventKXSAHM-27JAN08

MarketKXSAHM-27JAN08-T0.50

Insider trading is prohibited

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

About

The Sahm Rule is one of the best-known real-time recession indicators. It triggers when unemployment rises meaningfully from its recent low - specifically, when the three-month average unemployment rate is at least 0.50 percentage points above its low from the past year. The indicator is designed to catch recessions early, before official recession calls are made.