What will the U.S. tariff rate on Canada be on January 1, 2026?

What will the U.S. tariff rate on Canada be on January 1, 2026?

Between 20% and 29.99%

No

Between 20% and 29.99%

No

Between 30% and 39.99%

Yes

Between 30% and 39.99%

Yes

Between 40% and 50%

No

Between 40% and 50%

No

3 more

Market Rules

Below 10%

The outcome is 35%

Resolves Yes if the general import tariff rate on imports from Canada into the United States on Jan 1, 2026 is below 10%.Outcome verified from the President of the United States, the United States Congress, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC.

The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the highest rate in effect determines the resolution.

Examples (for <date> = Jan 1, 2026):

India: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14257) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = 50%

China: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14257, frozen) + 10% Fentanyl Penalty (IEEPA, reduced) = 20%

European Union: 15% Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14257)

Falkland Islands: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14257, modified Aug 2025)

Note: this event is mutually exclusive.

Timeline and payout

Market openSep 7, 2025 · 10:00am EDT

Market closedDec 31, 2025 · 11:59pm EST

Paid outJan 1, 2026 · 10:30am EST

SeriesKXTARIFFRATECAN

EventKXTARIFFRATECAN-26JAN01

MarketKXTARIFFRATECAN-26JAN01-10

Insider trading is prohibited

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
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