US trade deficit for 2026?

Chance

120‎ billion to 139.9‎ billion

<1%

120‎ billion to 139.9‎ billion

140‎ billion to 170‎ billion

▲ 3

140‎ billion to 170‎ billion

▲ 3

Above 170‎ billion

Above 170‎ billion

9 more

Below 45‎ billion

If US trade deficit for 2026 is below 45‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

The Expiration Value is the annual U.S. trade balance (goods and services) for 2026, as reported in the FT-900 release covering December 2026.

Note: this event is mutually exclusive.

Timeline and payout

Market openFeb 24, 2026 · 10:00am EST

Market closesAfter the outcome occurs

Projected payout30 minutes after closing

This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released. Otherwise, it closes by Feb 28, 2027 at 8:29am EST.

SeriesKXTRADEDEFICIT

EventKXTRADEDEFICIT-27FEB28

MarketKXTRADEDEFICIT-27FEB28-T45

Insider trading is prohibited

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.