Will Trump cut the China trade gap below $150B this year?
Will Trump cut the China trade gap below $150B this year?
Begins in 236 days · Feb 4, 8:00am EST
$0 vol
Chance
Below $150B
82%
Below $150B
82%
Market Rules
Below $150B
If the the U.S. goods trade deficit with China for calendar year 2026 is below $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The Underlying is the calendar-year 2026 U.S. goods trade deficit with China, as calculated from the U.S. Census Bureau’s “Trade in Goods with China” table.
For the purposes of this market, the deficit equals: 2026 imports from China minus 2026 exports to China
The market resolves to Yes if that amount is less than $150 billion. The market resolves to No if that amount is greater than or equal to $150 billion.
Data are nominal and not seasonally adjusted. Revisions published after the first annual 2026 value is released will not be considered.
Timeline and payout
Market openJun 3, 2026 · 7:30pm EDT
Market closesFeb 4, 2027 · 8:29am EST
Projected payoutFeb 11, 2027 · 10:30am EST
SeriesKXTRUMPTRADEGAP
EventKXTRUMPTRADEGAP-27FEB04
MarketKXTRUMPTRADEGAP-27FEB04-T150
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.