Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

$14,868 vol

Order book

Market Rules

Resolves Yes if the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050.Outcome verified from NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NCEI, Berkeley Earth, and UK Met Office Hadley Centre (HadCRUT).

At least two of the Source Agencies must report that we have hit the 2.0°C threshold.

Timeline and payout

Market openJun 5, 2025 · 12:45pm EDT

Market closesAfter the outcome occurs

Projected payout30 minutes after closing

This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Dec 31, 2049 at 11:59pm EST.

SeriesKXWARMING

EventKXWARMING-50

MarketKXWARMING-50

Insider trading is prohibited

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.