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Climate change

Daily temperature

Hourly temperature

Natural disasters

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Yes

1.18x

No

5.56x

$311,660 vol1 market

August 2026 temperature increase?

1.30001 or above

1.03x

1.24 to 1.30

18.8x

$31,101 vol6 markets

Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

Yes

1.28x

No

3.80x

$16,689 vol1 market

This August 2026 is the hottest August ever?

Yes

1.03x

No

23.4x

$98,945 vol1 market

India meets its 2030 climate goals?

Yes

1.42x

No

2.52x

$12,691 vol1 market

Lowest daily Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2026

Below 4.5 million sq km

1.65x

Below 4.4 million sq km

3.18x

$8,705 vol9 markets

US meets its climate goals?

By 2030

4.98x

By 2025

6.74x

$61,581 vol2 markets

EU meets its 2030 climate goals?

Yes

2.01x

No

1.67x

$3,800 vol1 market