Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
$140,250 vol
Chance
Hottest
30%
▼ 3
Hottest
30%
▼ 3
Market Rules
Hottest
If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from NASA Goddard
Institute for Space Studies.
The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for 2026, or 10:00 AM ET April 01, 2027
Timeline and payout
Market openNov 9, 2025 · 10:00am EST
Market closesDec 31, 2026 · 11:59pm EST
Projected payoutJan 1, 2027 · 11:00am EST
SeriesKXGTEMP
EventKXGTEMP-26
MarketKXGTEMP-26-P0
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
About
2023 was confirmed as the warmest year on record by both NASA and NOAA, with global temperatures averaging 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 degrees Celsius) above the baseline period (1951-1980). This record-breaking year follows a decade-long trend of rising temperatures, with the past 10 consecutive years being the warmest on record. Will it continue?